Tuesday 17th November 2009

A new ICM poll published in The Guardian today claims that David Cameron has an approval rating with the British public of 48%, but I wonder if this is enough?
The Torys will be pleased that Cameron is 16 points ahead of Gordon Brown as someone who has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister and their party still have a 13 point lead in the polls over Labour. However, this latest poll suggests that Cameron has the approval of less than half the British public. A certain Mr Gordon Brown had an approval rating of 48% in August 2007, two months after he took over from Tony Blair as PM and look how that has changed.
When Tony Blair became Prime Minister in May 1997, his approval rating was nearing 70%, so despite the seemingly comfortable lead in the polls Cameron and the Tories still have a long campaign ahead before they can guarantee victory in the next general election. Harold Wilson once said "a week is a long time in politics", so seven months (the general election is most likely to be held in June next year) is even longer.
Of course, Cameron can rely on the help of his friends at the Sun, as I expect the newspaper's smear campaign against Gordon Brown will intensify over the next few months. We've already seen the daily tabloid try to discredit Brown in any petty way possible, after blowing a story out of proportion last week about the Prime Minister making a couple of spelling mistakes in a condolence letter to a Mother whose son was killed in Afghanistan. Speaking as someone who has had their name spelt incorrectly in the Sun (its DOLTON, not Dalton!), this is unbelievable hypocrisy.
Thankfully, this smear on Brown backfired against the newspaper, but this won't stop them from launching more attacks in the build up to the election.
In 1992 we saw the "character assassination" of the then Labour leader Neil Kinnock, with some ridiculous "stories" published in the Sun, including the special "Nightmare on Kinnock Street" edition and the election day headlined edition "If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights".
Current Sun editor Rebekah Wade isn't quite as mad and radical as the editor in 1992 Kelvin MacKenzie was, but I still think the newspaper will do all they can to discredit Brown to ensure a Conservative victory.